pinkmonkeybird

...busting up my brains for the words

Monday, August 16, 2004

Polls are stubborn things

John Adams would most certainly object to my taking liberties with his words.

The professionals may remain cool & calm over the polls, but the rest of us are chomping at the bit. Some pros will claim they never watch the polls and take no stock in them. Others have made a cottage industry of interpreting them for the barefoot people who would follow a false religion. I can't think of any bad puns just now, so be patient.

Are polls facts?

It depends on who you're asking.

In the Bush camp there is a way to read them. This conflicts with the way the Kerry camp reads them. For weeks Kerry has led. Now, chinks are showing up. Can you say Gallup?

The authority on poll results, no matter which side you're on, is RealClearPolitics.

While it looks like a squeaker, I have been predicting a landslide victory for W for months.
For one thing, W can win in Minnesota. And as you dear reader, know, this is my waking dream.
The Republican National Convention is about to launch. The anniversary of 9/11 will shortly follow.
America will choose order and the continued offensive on radical Islamic extremism.

More on that in days to come.

2 Comments:

  • At 12:33 PM, Blogger Custos Morum said…

    "Are polls facts?"

    Polls are most certainly not facts and I would be surprised if even pollsters claimed that they were. The whole point of the margin of error that is present on any reputable poll is to underscore that the findings are not fact but merely indication.

     
  • At 1:14 PM, Blogger pinkmonkeybird said…

    Yes, cm. A valid observation.
    But the finer point I was intending to make is that polls may only be indicators or sketchs of likely voting trends, the polls themselves are facts.
    That is to say, it is a fact that Gallup reports Date: 8/9 - 8/11 Bush: 48% Kerry: 46% Nader: 3%

    One might counter by arguing that the results of this poll are inaccurate, and thus, not facts.
    But there are true facts and there are untrue facts;
    fact.
    fact
    n.
    1.Knowledge or information based on real occurrences: an account based on fact; a blur of fact and fancy.

    2.Something demonstrated to exist or known to have existed: Genetic engineering is now a fact. That Chaucer was a real person is an undisputed fact.
    A real occurrence; an event: had to prove the facts of the case.
    [b]Something believed to be true or real: a document laced with mistaken facts[/b][...]

    So while poll results are not necessarily factually correct, they are often treated as such by political campaigns and electorates.

     

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